A medieval trade route profit calculator for gauging what a merchant caravan really earned once guards, pack animals, tolls, taxes, spoilage and bandit risk are all counted.
📦 Goods & Pricing
Enter a positive quantity.
Enter a valid buy price.
Enter a valid sell price.
🐫 Caravan Details
A hired sword typically drew ~3 silver/day
Mules, horses, or camels; each carried ~100–150 kg
Enter a valid number of days.
For crew, not animals
🏰 Taxes & Tolls
Rhine merchants sometimes crossed 60+
⚠️ Risk & Miscellaneous
Applied as expected value, not a coin flip
Spoiled units can't be sold, but you still paid for them
Inn stays, bribes, cart repairs, etc.
📊 Results
Item
Amount (silver)
Metric
Silver
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How to Use This Medieval Merchant Caravan Profit Calculator
Enter what you're buying, how much of it, and your buy and sell price per unit. Then describe the caravan itself — guards, pack animals, and days on the road drive your daily costs — and add tolls, taxes, spoilage and bandit risk. Press Calculate Profit to see net profit, margin, ROI, a full cost breakdown, and the exact break-even sell price for your route.
Historical Context
Long-distance trade in medieval Europe and the Near East ran on razor-thin, unpredictable margins. A merchant moving goods from the Levant to Flanders paid duties at nearly every river crossing and city gate — the Rhine alone had dozens of toll castles by the 14th century. Guild membership was often mandatory to sell in a foreign market, and guilds charged entry fees for the privilege. Pack mules and camels carried roughly 100–150 kg each, and a journey of several weeks meant paying guards and feeding animals every single day regardless of whether the goods sold well. Spoilage, currency debasement, and bandits along forest roads made every caravan a genuine gamble, not a guaranteed payday.
Did You Know?
Merchants traveling the Rhine between Mainz and Cologne in the 1300s could face tolls at more than 60 separate castles — one nearly every few miles.
A medieval English silver penny weighed about 1.3–1.5 grams of fine silver; 240 of them made one pound sterling, the basis of English accounting for centuries.
Spices bought for a few coins at their source in Asia could sell for 10–20 times that price by the time they reached a Venetian or Flemish market, after passing through multiple middlemen, each taking a cut.
Why This Matters
This medieval trade route profit calculator is useful for anyone who needs realistic merchant economics rather than a naive "buy low, sell high" guess. Tabletop RPG and game masters running Pathfinder, D&D, or HARN-style campaigns can use it to price trade runs their players attempt. Historical fiction writers can generate plausible figures for a merchant character's fortunes. Video game and board game designers building trade mechanics — think Mount & Blade or a custom economy sim — can use the formula logic directly.
The key lesson the calculator teaches is that gross markup is meaningless on its own. A caravan that buys goods at 10 silver and sells at 18 silver looks like an 80% markup, but once you count guard wages, tolls, a 5% trade tax, a 2% guild fee, 3% spoilage, and a 10% bandit risk factor, that "80% markup" venture can shrink to a 4–5% net margin — barely above breaking even, and easily wiped out if any single risk factor gets worse.
How It's Calculated
The calculator works through these steps, in order:
Effective Sellable Quantity = Quantity × (1 − Spoilage %) — spoiled goods can't be sold, even though you paid for them.
Using the calculator's default values: 100 units bought at 10 silver, sold at 18 silver, with 4 guards at 3 silver/day, 5 pack animals at 1 silver/day, a 14-day journey, 5 silver/day food, 3 tolls at 15 silver each, 5% trade tax, 2% guild fee, 10% bandit risk, 3% spoilage, and 20 silver in misc costs.
At a sell price of 18 silver, this caravan clears a thin but real profit — just under 1 silver per unit above the break-even price of roughly 17.05. Any increase in tolls, taxes, or bandit activity could easily flip this into a loss.
Tips & Common Mistakes
Spoilage reduces revenue, not just cost. Spoiled units can't be sold, so they shrink your top-line revenue — the calculator applies spoilage to the sellable quantity, not as a bolt-on expense.
Taxes and fees are levied on revenue, not profit. A 5% trade tax on 1,746 silver of sales is 87.30 silver, regardless of whether the trip is profitable.
Daily costs punish long journeys. A 30-day route with 8 guards costs 720 silver in wages alone — bulk, low-value goods like grain rarely survive that math.
Check the break-even price before you commit. If your planned sell price is only a silver or two above break-even, a single bad toll or a slightly lower market price can erase your profit entirely.
More guards lower bandit risk but raise fixed costs — there's a genuine trade-off, not a free win, so model both sides before hiring extra swords.
Frequently Asked Questions
What currency should I use?
The calculator uses generic "silver" units, but any consistent currency works. For historical accuracy, medieval Europe commonly used silver pennies — roughly 240 to a pound sterling in 13th-century England. Just keep your buy price, sell price, and all costs in the same unit.
How is bandit risk actually calculated?
Bandit risk is applied as an expected value: a 10% risk figure subtracts 10% of gross revenue as the statistically expected loss, rather than simulating a single robbery event. If you want to model a partial robbery (say a 30% chance of losing 30% of goods), enter roughly 9% as your risk figure.
Why does spoilage affect revenue and not just costs?
Because spoiled goods physically can't be sold. You still paid the full purchase price for every unit, but only the surviving, "effective" quantity generates sale revenue. Treating spoilage only as an added cost line would understate how much it actually hurts a caravan's earnings.
What counts as a good profit margin for medieval trade?
Historical accounts suggest successful long-distance merchants of luxury goods like spices or silk often expected 15–40% net margins after all costs, though returns swung wildly year to year. Local, short-haul traders on safer routes might net 8–15%. A margin above 50% in this calculator usually means taxes, tolls, or risk were set too low for a realistic route.
Can I use this for a tabletop RPG or video game economy?
Yes — the formulas are generic enough to price any fantasy or historical trade run. Use the Per Unit tab to compare which goods are most profitable per pack-animal slot, and the break-even price to set realistic in-game market prices.
What does the "modern equivalent" figure mean?
It converts your net profit in silver pieces to an approximate modern US dollar value, assuming each silver piece represents the silver content of a typical medieval penny (about 1.3 grams) priced at roughly today's silver spot price. It's a rough illustration, not a precise currency conversion.
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